US politics

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Langben
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Re: US politics

Post by Langben » 00:59:18 Thursday, 05 May, 2016

Huojin wrote: You could always blame the Democratic establishment for being so totally useless in 2014 that their position in Congress and national politics was destroyed since they for some reason didn't get behind Obama's record. It's testament to just how useless they were that only 3 actual politicians ran for the Democratic nomination, one of whom made zero mark on the contest. If they'd been any good at all we could've seen a field better populated by candidates who presented a real alternative to Hillary.
DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Clinton's 08 election co-chair, shill for payday loans in Florida, all that tasteful goon shit. Obama sure suffered a lot of Hillary's lackeys shitting up the system, for all the trouble they put him through.
I'm also sceptical of everyone's belief that the Republicans will fall in line. The majority of Republican voters? Probably. But I still think the majority of the establishment and the politicians, particularly those in Blue and Purple states, will distance themselves from Trump.
Falling in line is what Republicans do, and it's not like there's an alternative to split their vote like the Green Party. Giving them a Clinton to rally against just insures the rhetoric to do their duty will be pumped in early and often, so even if some do get scared away by Trump I don't believe a noticeable portion of regular voters will flee to Hillary. Moneyed interests spread their efforts like a roulette table anyway, I don't think either Clinton or Trump represents a losing scenario for them.

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RinKou
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Re: US politics

Post by RinKou » 03:55:51 Thursday, 05 May, 2016

Huojin wrote: I'm also sceptical of everyone's belief that the Republicans will fall in line. The majority of Republican voters? Probably. But I still think the majority of the establishment and the politicians, particularly those in Blue and Purple states, will distance themselves from Trump. They can't afford to align themselves with him. Some will merely remain quiet, others will disavow him entirely. Whatever they can do. Those'll be the people we see post-November working with Paul Ryan (of all people!) to rebuild the reputation of the Republican Party in Congress. How well they manage that, well, we'll see.
Yeah, that's the interesting split when you get down to it. The NPR Politics Podcast's been having a fucking field day this week, and the most interesting thing they've mentioned so far is that disconnect between the elected officials and the voters. There's a breaking point here somewhere, and I think Trump is that breaking point - the GOP voters have gone so far off the rails that they've thrown the election, Congress, and SCOTUS.

And I don't even know if we'll see any actual migration from the party, given how solidified political identity and ideology is now. Reagan was a different case - there were still residual racists in the Southern Democrats, and their break is probably the last major party reshuffle we'll see in a while. I think given the fact that Prince Rebus' "soul-searching" and attempt to appeal to Hispanics lead to WE'RE GONNA BUILD A WALL AND MEXICO IS GONNA PAY FOR IT, the GOP-Tea Party is like, here to stay, and will continue to lose relevancy as its constituency dies off from old age/opioid addiction.
Master of Oblivion wrote: I think you hit at one of the biggest problems that no one talked about in this election. Under President Obama the democrats lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, and 13 Senate seats. A lot of the mid to low ranks of leadership was decimated. Besides Elizabeth Warren, who else were the democrats happy to support? Everyone talked about Biden, but remember how well he did the last time he ran? The democrats really need to restock their leadership.
This is another really interesting point, though, the GOP's biggest strength is consistent values voters that can flip state legislatures, governorships, fucking school boards. That's where any incremental change happens, and that's where any real ground-level progress gets fucked. Taken together, a possible winning GOP strategy would be to completely foreclose on any more national seats and focus their energy to pulling the geographical middle of the country in a different direction entirely. It's no Scalia-Thomas tag-team, but it'd still really muck things right up.
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Re: US politics

Post by Huojin » 12:14:59 Thursday, 05 May, 2016

@Goofy: I think you're thinking the only options are Vote Rep, Vote Dem, Vote 3rd Party. I really think it's a major consideration that a lot of people plum won't vote. At least not for President. Falling in line is what the majority of Republicans will undoubtedly do, but those in Blue and Purple states still want to keep their jobs. If endorsing Trump hurts them with any voting bloc they've been relying on, they're probably not gonna do it. There is going to be a significant chunk of the population that votes for their Congressional races, but skips out on voting for President.


I'm pretty sure the Democrats are going to take the Senate, but we might be a little premature on our estimations of them controlling Congress completely. The Democrats are, as we have said, weak on the leadership front, particularly at the lower end of the national scale. I've seen some estimates for the number of seats they'd have to flip and it's looking unlikely that they'll regain the majority. Plus they're coming off the back of a 2 term Democratic presidency, and we know how the House loves to flip-flop based on whatever people think is important. I can see the RNC throwing money into House races so they can pull something out of this pile of shit they've got themselves into.

Handily though, another aspect of demographic shift is gonna be that the House is going to become increasingly populated by seats which have a Democratic preference, particularly as population concentrations shift more and more towards cities (being the traditionally enlightened, more liberal hubs that they are), and the population in those cities (and the whole country) aligns more closely with Democratic values.

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Re: US politics

Post by RinKou » 16:10:47 Thursday, 05 May, 2016

Demographic shift or not, though, Congress massively empowers rural states, and not only through the Senate. The proportional representation of each congressman is still huge in smaller states compared to larger ones (Wyoming's one congresswoman represents 580k people, California's 53 represent 783k people each), and gerrymandering's a hard-to-kill bug. Besides, it's going to take a ton of urbanization to even start to create liberal hubs in the Rockies/cornbelt, though Colorado should show that it's at least possible.

Still, though, demographics may favor the Democrats in the long run, but voter engagement is harder to pull among people who aren't constantly self-righteous and indignant.

On another interesting note, though, Math recently shared a Quartz article about a good handful of Republican media figures deregistering as Republicans and/or pro-Shillary tweeting. Still, none of those mentioned are officeholders, so we'll see what happens there.
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Re: US politics

Post by Cthulhuvong » 15:45:15 Tuesday, 17 May, 2016

So apparently Chtulhu is a viable alternative to Trump or Hillary, so says GOP strategist Rick Wilson (its after about 5:44 in the video)

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/
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Re: US politics

Post by Huojin » 16:25:51 Tuesday, 17 May, 2016

Awww, Sweet Meteor of Death lost out to Cthulhu in the World Destruction Party primaries :<

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Langben
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Re: US politics

Post by Langben » 00:37:32 Wednesday, 18 May, 2016

Cthulhuvong wrote:>GOP
>strategy
Image

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Re: US politics

Post by Serenissima » 05:24:21 Wednesday, 01 June, 2016

"Imagine lies, and then write them down in order. That is literally all authors do!"

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Re: US politics

Post by Huojin » 22:39:00 Saturday, 06 August, 2016

I've decided I could probably tolerate Hillary more if she weren't such an awful speaker. Every time she opens her mouth it's a countdown to cringe. How can the world go from the brilliant oration of Obama to this tripe? I mean at this point, it's basically a given she's going to win, but if we have to put up with Nixon 2.0 for 4 years minimum, can't she takes some lessons in public speaking?

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Tellos
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Re: US politics

Post by Tellos » 01:43:17 Sunday, 07 August, 2016

Not everyone is a great speaker. Deal with it.
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Re: US politics

Post by Huojin » 08:50:18 Sunday, 07 August, 2016

Tellos wrote:Not everyone is a great speaker. Deal with it.
Productive discussion, thanks Tellos.

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Re: US politics

Post by Tellos » 06:05:13 Monday, 08 August, 2016

It's a simple fact the idea that oratory is a thing your always gonna progress in from leaders is a silly idea. Some will speak well others won't if you rely on everyone being better at talking than the last you will be sorely disappointed.
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Re: US politics

Post by Huojin » 15:56:57 Monday, 08 August, 2016

Tellos wrote:It's a simple fact the idea that oratory is a thing your always gonna progress in from leaders is a silly idea. Some will speak well others won't if you rely on everyone being better at talking than the last you will be sorely disappointed.
Who said anything about expecting her to be better than Obama, or requiring leaders to progress and always be better than their predecessors at public speaking? I said Obama was great by way of comparison. I could equally have compared her to Bush 2, who said idiotic things but knew how to speak to a room at least. There are children giving presentations in school who are better at public speaking than Hillary.

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Re: US politics

Post by Zar » 18:15:12 Monday, 08 August, 2016

Huojin wrote:the brilliant oration of Obama
What Obama speeches do you think are memorable?
"I have no patience for injustice, no tolerance for government incompetence, no sympathy for leaders who fail their citizens."

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