I'm also sceptical of everyone's belief that the Republicans will fall in line. The majority of Republican voters? Probably. But I still think the majority of the establishment and the politicians, particularly those in Blue and Purple states, will distance themselves from Trump. They can't afford to align themselves with him. Some will merely remain quiet, others will disavow him entirely. Whatever they can do. Those'll be the people we see post-November working with Paul Ryan (of all people!) to rebuild the reputation of the Republican Party in Congress. How well they manage that, well, we'll see.
Yeah, that's the interesting split when you get down to it. The NPR Politics Podcast's been having a fucking field day this week, and the most interesting thing they've mentioned so far is that disconnect between the elected officials and the voters. There's a breaking point here somewhere, and I think Trump is that breaking point - the GOP voters have gone so far off the rails that they've thrown the election, Congress, and SCOTUS.
And I don't even know if we'll see any actual migration from the party, given how solidified political identity and ideology is now. Reagan was a different case - there were still residual racists in the Southern Democrats, and their break is probably the last major party reshuffle we'll see in a while. I think given the fact that Prince Rebus' "soul-searching" and attempt to appeal to Hispanics lead to WE'RE GONNA BUILD A WALL AND MEXICO IS GONNA PAY FOR IT, the GOP-Tea Party is like, here to stay, and will continue to lose relevancy as its constituency dies off from old age/opioid addiction.
Master of Oblivion wrote:
I think you hit at one of the biggest problems that no one talked about in this election. Under President Obama the democrats lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, and 13 Senate seats. A lot of the mid to low ranks of leadership was decimated. Besides Elizabeth Warren, who else were the democrats happy to support? Everyone talked about Biden, but remember how well he did the last time he ran? The democrats really need to restock their leadership.
This is another really interesting point, though, the GOP's biggest strength is consistent values voters that can flip state legislatures, governorships, fucking school boards. That's where any incremental change happens, and that's where any real ground-level progress gets fucked. Taken together, a possible winning GOP strategy would be to completely foreclose on any more national seats and focus their energy to pulling the geographical middle of the country in a different direction entirely. It's no Scalia-Thomas tag-team, but it'd still really muck things right up.